Sunday, October 4, 2009

(A preemptive disclaimer about the weird shifts in size in this post -- You are not in fact viewing this through a magnifying glass, but if you were to, and the glass were to rove around like a rabid mouse, this is roughly how it might look. Actually, not really. But you never know.)

-A divisional court in Rangoon rejects Oct. 2 Aung San Suu Kyi's appeal.
-The US announces its long-awaited policy shift on Sept 29, including an increase in humanitarian assistance and its first detailed talks with Burmese authorities. This takes effect immediately -- a day later, in New York, Kurt Campbell, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs meets with U Thaung, Minister of techonology, science and labour. Then he goes to Washington on the 30th to report on the State Department's new thinking in a Senate hearing, held by Jim Webb. He specifies that engagement with the junta would "supplement" rather than "replace sanctions."*
-Suu Kyi is reported to accept the US shift.
-Chinese authorities seek damages from the junta but block Myanmar from appearing on this month's UN Security Council agenda. Larry Jagan writes of a major flurry of Sino-Burmese diplomatic nattering, and something of a bust-up.
-Talks between the junta and the Kachin Independence Organization are in a stand-off.
-And another American finds his way into Insein prison.

It's been a heady few weeks, eh?

Pardon the long pause, fair readers. No undue respect intended. Still, all the better to accumulate in a single package a series of fits and starts on Planet Burma-- geostrategic, microscopic -- propelling us centimeters forward in a country that some have thought frozen by a magic spell of military whimsy.
About that assumption, I'd beg to differ. True the scene in Rangoon presents itself to the naked eye as little different, doubtless, to months, years previous (dishes and cell phones aside). But as my favorite poet once put it,
Moving of th' earth brings harms and fears ;
Men reckon what it did, and meant ;
But trepidation of the spheres,
Though greater far, is innocent.
Admittedly, the subject, as was John Donne's wont, was love, deep and profound and omnipresent between two parting paramours.
In Burma, deep forces of change -- geostrategic, microscopic -- are rooted in two recent events: the killing of monks in the protests of Aug-Sept. 2007, and, less than a year later, the empowerment of the people when their government hopelessly bungled the delivery of relief to victims of Tropical Cyclone Nargis.

*This was a colorful affair. Camera crews, mainly Japanese, buzzing outside the wooden doors. Inside, standing room only. The seated crowd were one-third red -- monks, and another third neon-yellow -- unidentified white folk, all stoney faced and wearing phosphorescent T-shirts that read "Burma is NOT Vietnam."
Lucky someone thought to hang a map of Asia behind Webb in case any of us were confused.

The yellow-wearers, it turns out, were conscripts of the US Campaign for Burma. At the end of the hearing, I asked a blonde why we should run the risk of comparing.
"Webb thinks they're the same," she answered. "He wanted to lift sanctions on Vietnam." And now Burma.
Ah. Didn't the hearing sway her a little, I ventured? Wasn't there a suggestion, I asked, of a rethink in policy grounded in historical and socio-economic circumstances rather than a mere cut and paste from Vietnam? To boot, at three hours long, the hearing consisted of complex, nuanced presentations from Campbell and three seasoned academics on Burma -- David Steinberg, Thant Myint U and David Williams. Webb's lengthy questioning to the panelists implied that he was, well, listening.
Less so the blonde. "No," she answered. And out she stomped.
But then perhaps the conscripts to the cause, to the cause of Burma viewed from far far far away where it looks all contrasty in black and white, well perhaps they're a bit like Rangoon at first glance: stagnant, frozen in routine. Stuck.

2 comments:

  1. Above you wrote that "-Chinese authorities seek damages from the junta but block Myanmar from appearing on this month's UN Security Council agenda." The link for the story/information on "Chinese authorities seek[ing]damages from the junta" did not work on your blog. So I am assuming that you wanted link to the story below or some version of it or report about it.

    The problem with your point then is that the "Chinese authorities" who are seeking damages and those who took action in the Security Council are not one and the same. I would not even bother to point this out but, this error is representative of much thinking about the role of China and the Chinese in Burma. China is not a monolithic entity. Despite being an authoritarian regime local officials have a lot of leeway in how they implement policy. So much so that they are often making policy. This is especially true for the case of Burma (or at least I know more about it in this case and less so elsewhere). Officials at the provincial and local levels, especially in Yunnan -where the damages request comes from - are making Burma policy, dealing with local commanders (both Tatmadaw and ceasefire group) and local issues of trade.

    The SPDC response in the article, that they would only compensate "businesses operating legally in Burma" is also a bit disingenuous. The issue is compensation for PRC citizens' assets that were damaged in the recent Kokang conflict. It is quite probable that few of those businesses went thought the legal niceties (and bureaucratic obstacles) to register with the Myanmar government. Often registration is pretty much impossible and/or prohibitively expensive. But more importantly these business were operating in Kokang which was not administered by the Myanmar government until after the Kokang conflict. So the SPDC response to Lincang authorities' compensation request amounts to telling them off and, I think, suggest that the SPDC is sending a message that they are not happy with the way local officials in Yunnan have done things/ or allowed things to be done which make life easier for the ceasefire groups on the border.

    http://tiny.cc/lincang

    Irrawaddy: Chinese authorities seek damages from junta – Ko Htwe

    Thu 1 Oct 2009
    Filed under: On The Border

    Local authorities in Lincang, a region in southwestern China bordering Burma, have demanded 280 million yuan (US $41 million) in compensation from the Burmese regime for loss of property incurred during a junta offensive in Kokang in late August.

    According to a source based on the Sino-Burmese border, officials from Lincang want the regime to pay for damage done to Chinese-owned businesses in Laogai, the Kokang capital.

    The Burmese authorities responded by asking their Chinese counterparts to provide a detailed list of damaged property. They added that they would only compensate businesses operating legally in Burma.

    In a statement issued on Sept. 26, China’s Foreign Ministry urged the Burmese junta to ensure the security of Chinese citizens living near the conflict area and to avoid any further clashes.

    Burma’s ambassador to China, Thein Lwin, told China News Service on Sept. 29 that the Kokang region was peaceful again, and that he had “sympathy” for residents’ losses caused by the clashes.

    In March 1989, the Kokang became one of the first ethnic armed groups to sign a cease-fire agreement with the Burmese regime.

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  2. Dear Semuren,
    Thank you for your comment! Excellent point -- no intention here of suggesting that China's a monolith or that local authorities in any way represent Beijing and bad of me to make the shorthand. On the other hand, motives of authorities on either side are largely speculative. But as you raise a fascinating issue about the role or relative autonomy of local authorities to forge policy at the local level. In Burma at least, that was evident after Tropical Cyclone Nargis. After much prodding of Naypyidaw for access to the storm-devastated Irrawaddy Delta, foreign nonprofits at times found it more productive to work quietly with lower ranking bureaucrats or provincial authorities.

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