If It Smells of Gas, It Bleeds

Is it possible that recent fighting between the military government and the ethnic Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army was actually a clever and/or randomly naked instance of a long-held strategy to callously remove thousands of people living in the vicinity of a multimillion-dollar pipeline route? Oh, perhaps.
In a venal police state, conspiracy theories often turn on more than the proverbial mere grain of truth. The junta --let's not kid ourselves -- is evil. It is hellbent on its own enrichment and has proven none too fond of any obstacles to such, human or otherwise. Throw "ethnic" into the mix, and gone with the jasmine-infused wind is any semblance of kid-gloved guile dressed up in the trappings of civilian or legal technicalities. *

The route would begin in the newly discovered natural gas deposits in the Bay of Bengal, off Burma's Arakan State, cross the searingly hot central flatlands of Mandalay division and pour into China's Yunnan, intermediary efforts supplied by a consortium that includes -- of course -- the 100%-state-owned Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise and Korea's Daewoo. The pipeline's on-again-off-again construction has long been the subject of intense scrutiny and speculation.

Not nearly so wishy washy was the Chinese businessman I met checking out of a swanky all-marble bungalow extravanganza of a hotel in the hotel zone of Naypyidaw (no pool, alas). "And what are you doing here, Sir?" "I work on the pipeline. You know?" Oh fascinating. There my Mandarin proved incomplete and his interest in speaking to an overly curious foreigner less alluring than the feast of fried noodles and rice porridge awaiting at the breakfast buffet.

Assuming for an instant that this blog is a bit like a card table in a casino on which to chuck half-baked plans of hope and wishful thinking and watch as they fail to materialize or deflate like briefly baked souffles -- Ooh too many metaphors there -- let's use the pipeline to ask and speculate on a variety of blatantly obvious questions. Whether it is or is not in the offing is critical for many reasons, chief of which it promises to funnel millions into the junta's already gas-fat pockets. But they're already rich, so what difference does that make (I hear you cry)? Excellent point, fair reader. But even King Midos wanted more gold until he turned to the stuff himself. And no we are are not suggesting a vaguely pagan karmic twist with an end of rich poetic justice (Junta Sen. Gen Vanishes Into the Ether in a Toxic Vapor of Methane; Skinny-Lunged Cows Waste No Energy to Flinch. Or: Greenhouse Gases Congeal Over Naypyidaw; City of bones, at last!). Richness and corruption procreate. And thicker ties to China breeds less pressure for change inside Burma, which means fewer chances still for revolutionaries to both bake their souffles and eat them too. And -- a rather more crucial point -- the pipeline's construction will inevitably precipitate mass displacements, complete with violence to individuals, loss of lands and revenue, fraying of societies and more ethnic tensions generated by untimely mixing of groups that have lived happily segregated since well before King Thibaw disappeared with his evil queen and bottle of gin in a lick of British cannon fodder. (And no, the sacred royal White Elephant was not invited along.)
According to a report released by the Shwe Gas Movement, a pressure group based in Thailand, the pipeline promises $29 billion over the next 30 years to the junta. Which brings us back to fighting with the Kokang in late August, 50 km from the proposed route, 200 dead, mass exodus of another 30,000 civilians.
Note that your humble author is freely borrowing for these thoughts from this excellent anaysis in The Irrawaddy.
Alternatively, for real aficionados, check out the original report here.

*(To translate -- I'm referring here to niceties that involve drafting a brand new constitution meant to offer at least a semblance of civilian rule, its attendant show of elections, referendums and such like, and random trials of beleaguered Nobel Peace Prize winners on bizarrely capsized charges, et cetera -- and for that I'll send you back reflexively to pretty talk of the law, junta-style . I believe you get the drift. We will incidentally return to constitutional matters on a day of sufficient weightiness).

UPDATE:
Earthrights International has some tough accusations against Total and Chevron.