'Tis time to talk of ethnic things.

To the Western liberal post-modernist (a la Tony Judt), Ethnic man has much akin to Hydrocarbon man, which is to say ideally entering the winter of his life, discredited after a century spent strutting across states large and small, ancient or emergent, spawning demagogues, Wagnerian theories of Supermen and mystical glorifications of foggy past massacres.

To the ensconced but ever-paranoid ruler of an authoritarian anthropologist's paradise, Ethnic man is a poke in the eye, which is to say the rabbling refuse of a rival minority group, beholden only to his collectivity, and rather like the wandering cosmopolitan, forever scheming violent takeover. Ideally, since the days of serving gin to British colonials as Native Favorite #1, he has reverted to a bucolic life in the wilds of the frontier, picking through brambles, oiling up the leather from a fresh kill and smashing together rocks in a neanderthal approximation of music (ruler hopes). In the event of an escape from the hills, however, best to flatten him. This would conveniently serve the double purpose of sending shockwaves of fear to neighboring rival groups.

Not exactly a theory of crystalline intelligence, but let's assume that as foundation on which to build a flimsy scaffold of educated hypothesis about the current blur of bloodiness between the junta, bands of armed ethnic groups in the northeastern highlands of Burma and the tent cities for their refugees that have newly sprung up and been torn down as fast over the border, in China.


Remember, fair readers, that Burma is a smorgasbord of peoples, as richly endowed as the French claim cheeses. Start at A (Anu) and work your way via 135 groups to Z (Zotung). Though roughly psuedonymous with the ethnic Burman (roughly two thirds of the total 50 million), the country is also home to the Karen and Shan groups, each about 10% of the total population, while Akha, Chin, Chinese, Danu, Indian, Kachin, Karenni, Kayan, Kokang, Lahu, Mon, Naga, Palaung, Pao, Rakhine, Rohingya, Tavoyan, and Wa peoples each constitute 5% or less of the population. Predictably, the British cultivated their favorites among the people of the hills, whom they managed to covert to Christianity and forevermore helping to cement a distinction with the decidedly Buddhist Burmans of the plains. The groups agreed to a Union of Burma at Panglong in 1947, which in spirit set out a plan for enshrining minority rights, varying levels of autonomy and the option of secession for two groups in particular, but the terms were never fully implemented.
Cue six decades of insurgent activity, precipitated by a series of military rulers who have made small secret of favoring the majority ethnicity.
And so we return to recent events, reminder of the fragility of cease-fires signed after 1988 with a variety of armed ethnic groups.

Fascinating too, relations with China have been thrown into sharp relief.

Myanmar's military incursion into northeastern Shan State shattered a 20-year ceasefire with rebel armies on its border with China and could trigger the protracted instability that Beijing, the junta's strongest friend, has long feared.

A prolonged conflict that forces more refugees to flee to China would show that the junta is intent on controlling the rebellious region, despite any fallout with China, analysts said.

"Seizing control is more important, because they will not accept private armies with their own local administration," said Bertil Lintner, an author and specialist on Myanmar.

"They're not as subservient to the Chinese as many people think. They're certainly not their puppets. The generals are megalomaniacs and they know China won't cut the trade ties."

Ah. Indeed. According to a friend in Rangoon, the attack on the Kokang was a propaganda victory inside. Images of dead security forces have galvanized support for a military again seen to be defending the people from nefarious destructive elements.

International NGOs reported that more than 30,000 refugees fled to China in the past week to escape the fighting. Since then, with the fighting apparently subsiding, refugees have begun to trickle back to the Kokang capital of Lougai, which is on the border and which is firmly under the control of the Burmese army.
Writes Larry Jagan in the Bangkok Post: "Once a bustling border town full of bars, discos, karaoke clubs, massage parlours and gambling dens, the town centre is still virtually deserted and many buildings have been damaged."

Meanwhile, the Irrawaddy reports, "Wa sources... confirmed that hundreds of villagers from the townships of Hopang, Konlong and Panlong had fled to other towns in Shan State or to China to avoid being caught in the crossfire of a potentially bloody armed conflict."

And so the platitude once more reveals its grain of truth. Seems as though Beijing was thrown to the dogs for a bout of terrorizing the ethnic groups into submission ahead of 2010. In the end, all politics is local.